With the defending champion, Juan Martin Del Potro out of this year’s US Open, I believe there are 10 players that could win the title:

1) Roger Federer- The five time US Open champion clearly deserves to come to New York as the favorite.   With some sub par results coming into the US Open Series this year (at least by Federer standards), the current World No. 2 has really rejuvenated his year by reaching the finals in back-to-back hard court Masters series events in Toronto (l. to Andy Murray) and Cincinnati (d. Mardy Fish).   Federer’s win in Toronto yesterday was his first since winning the Australian Open this past January and should give him a lot of confidence in his hard court game coming into the open.  

2) Andy Murray- Even though Murray has had two extremely disappointing Grand Slam final appearances where he lost in straight sets to Roger Federer, many experts are still picking Murray to win his first Grand Slam at the 2010 US Open.   A few weeks ago in Toronto, the Scott blew through Nalbandian, Nadal and Federer in straight sets to win his first tournament of the year and many experts were jumping on the Murray bandwagon.   The loss to Mardy Fish this past week in Cincinnati (which was his third loss in a row to Fish), has cast doubts in some people’s minds.   Being the fourth world ranked player, there is a good chance that Murray will be on the same side of the draw as Federer and would be able to play him before the final.   Without the Grand Slam final pressure, perhaps Murray could fair better against Feds.   I also strongly believe that Murray would be more comfortable against another player in the final like Nadal or the lesser Grand Slam experienced players like Soderling or Berdych, and would probably come out on top.   

3) Tomas Berdych- After making the final in Miami (l. to Andy Roddick), his first Grand Slam semi-final appearance at the French Open (l. to Robin Soderling) and then his first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon (l. to Nadal), Tomas Berdych is enjoying a breakthrough year in 2010.   As of late though, the Berd Man has had some mediocre results with quarterfinal appearances in Washington, D.C. and Toronto and a third round exit in Cincinnati.   I predict Berdych will step it up on the big stage and at least make it to the semis at this year’s open.

4) Robin Soderling- Robin Soderling proved that his 2009 run to the French Open final was no fluke by making to the French Open final again, earlier this year.   Soderling has only played in two hard court tournaments this summer in Toronto where he lost to David Nalbandian in the third round and Cincinnati where he lost a close match to Andy Roddick in the fourth round.   Soderling’s game is very well-suited for the fast hard courts in New York and the Swede has clearly demonstrated that he could beat the top players at the big tournaments.   I expect Soderling to reach the quarterfinals, if not the semis.

5) Rafael Nadal- Clearly the best player this year, Rafael Nadal is very deserving of the World No. 1 ranking.   Nadal won his sixth French Open title and second Wimbledon title and with his one Australian Open title, is looking to complete the career slam this year in New York.   Based on his hard court results this summer, and prior results at the US Open, I don’t believe it’s going to happen this year.   Nadal was taken out in straight sets by Murray in Toronto and by Baghdatis this past week in Cincinnati.   In both matches, Nadal was leaving balls very short and paying the price quite frequently.   I believe this trend will continue on the fast courts of New York and the Spaniard is lucky if he reaches the semi-finals.

6) Mardy Fish- The thirty-pounds-thinner Fish has put together a dream summer season, so far in 2010.   Coming all the way from a world ranking of 98 in early May of this year, Mardy Fish finished runner up to Sam Querrey in Queens Club, won back-to-back titles in Newport and Atlanta, and with his recent final appearance in Cincinnati (l. to Federer), is now ranked 21st in the world.   At 28, I really believe this is the year for Fish to make a big US Open statement and potentially beat his 2008 US Open quarter-final best results, by getting to the semi-finals.

7) Andy Roddick- This past week’s semi-final run at Cincinnati, where he beat Robin Soderling and Novak Djokovic should give Roddick some confidence heading into the open.   Coming into this past week, the 2003 US Open Champion had really struggled since his fourth round exit to Yen-Hsun Lu at this past Wimbledon, losing in his third match in Atlanta and the third round in Washington.   Earlier this year, Roddick did put together some really good hard court results by making back-to-back Masters series finals in Indian Wells (l. to Ivan Ljubicic) and Miami (d. Tomas Berdych).   I believe Roddick will lose in the quarterfinals this year.

8) Marcos Baghdatis- With Baghdatis’ new found fitness, the Cypriot has had pretty good results during this US Open Tour with a final appearance in Washington, D.C. (l. to David Nalbandian) and a semi-final appearance in Cincinnati (l. to Roger Federer).   Bags also has wins against both Federer and Nadal this year.   At the 2006 Australian Open, Bags demonstrated that he has what it takes to be a Grand Slam hard court finalist, and with the US Open being as wide open as it is, there’s no reason why he can’t make a run into the quarters or even the semis.

9) David Nalbandian- After winning his first ATP title on US soil in Washington, D.C. earlier this summer, many people in the tennis community were predicting Nalbandian as their dark horse to win the US Open.   While the Argentine has clearly demonstrated in his career that he can go toe-to-toe with the top players, he hasn’t played in the last six Grand Slams and his last two losses to Murray and Djokovic have exposed some weaknesses in his game.   Also, though he has followed the trend of weight loss on the tour and is in some of the best shape of his career, he still has played a lot more tennis than he’s accustomed to during the US Open Series.   Nevertheless, Nalbandian will certainly be a player to watch in New York. 

10) Novak Djokovic-Though the Serb comes into the 2010 US Open as the 3rd world ranked player and the number four favorite to win, I don’t think he has any chance to claim his second Grand Slam title.   I can’t remember the last time Djokovic won a title where he had to get through the top players.   Also, with poor head-to-head records against Andy Roddick (lost four out of the last five meetings), Andy Murray (lost last three meetings), Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (lost five out of the last six meetings), and Roger Federer (lost last three out of four meetings), I don’t see how he could make it through a Grand Slam draw.